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| User Info | Bernanke The Tool, and More Illegal Leaks in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-10 16:34:25
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Nomullet Posts: 3422 Incept: 2007-11-11 
Duke City
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Why doesn't the WSJ get in trouble for printing unsubstantiated bull****?
---------- if you crap more than once a day you are eating too much
2008-01-10 16:54:29
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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They named the leaker of the Bernanke comments this time. That's a start. You know they won't get butt****ed though. But if you or I were to "leak" something like that....... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-10 16:56:24
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Akula Posts: 1809 Incept: 2007-10-01 
Moscow
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Gen, I get a VIX of 31.2 on November 12 vs. a VIX of 25.6 on January 8th which are the dates of the conclusion of their respective "Wave 3 Down" movements. Any theories why the VIX has not spiked as high during the mid December to January plunge vs. the November plunge? I guess this is the difference between having a couple of 40 point down days vs. 30 point down days. Last modified:
2008-01-10 17:55:39 by akula
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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The level of fear hasn't been there Akula. The triangle is nasty though. If it breaks as expected we could easily see FIFTY on the VIX. Yeah. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-10 17:54:34
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Akula Posts: 1809 Incept: 2007-10-01
Moscow
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I guess there is a mispricing of risk that will eventually get squeezed out of the triangle. Not like there hasn't been a ton of mispricing by the market lately. I have been studying the situation in the market the weeks of October 9th and October 16th 2000 which was the last time the market coming off an all time high breached the 100 Week and threw a pin at the 200 Week EMA. Based on that study it looks like the SPX could go as low as 1342 (probably just throw a pin) on this next down wave before coming up into the FOMC. Of course all the usual disclaimers apply to the above. LOL.
2008-01-10 18:08:20
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities. Last modified:
2008-01-10 18:42:17 by asianbull
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Signas Posts: 609 Incept: 2007-06-26 Reno
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Maybe it was the Government frontrunning so they could pay the phone bill. FBI Wiretaps Dropped Due to Unpaid Bills Quote:WASHINGTON (AP) - Telephone companies cut off FBI wiretaps used to eavesdrop on suspected criminals because of the bureau's repeated failures to pay phone bills on time, according to a Justice Department audit released Thursday. http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/st.... I am coming at yooooooooooou!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 ROTFLMAO ---------- Carbon Credits "FOR SALE" Bring a wheelbarrow full of money!!
2008-01-10 21:23:29
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Bluntfacts Posts: 693 Incept: 2007-10-09 Las Vegas, Nevada
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Interesting Ticker for Thursday 1/10/07. I was thinking most of the same things Karl mentioned, but it was around 1:30PM Wednesday. For no apparent reason, there seemed to be strong bids in many of the national and regional financials. In retrospect, I wish I would have joined the herd; many were good for 10% gains from then to Thursday's close. Oh well; maybe next time. As Gomez Addams once said, think of all the tax I don't have to pay on what would have been wins. ---------- "Will someone come on TV and tell the truth about how bad it is". Jim Cramer August 2007. "We can change the focus to a soft blur; or sharpen it to crystal clarity" The Outer Limits 1964.
2008-01-10 21:38:38
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Marketdeception Posts: 4004 Incept: 2007-08-31
Lancaster, NY Online
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I've been looking at the $vix triangle as well. I'm not smart enough to do a screen capture, but you took care of it in the video. Thanks for pointing it out.
2008-01-10 21:48:22
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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That VIX triangle is NASTY. Its not the highest reliability pattern in the toolshed, but if it does what its predicting.... holy ****!
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-10 21:51:32
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Dman19762001 Posts: 95 Incept: 2008-01-09
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Regarding the VIX. My thesis is that traders have become complacent because it is becoming apparent that the Treasury and Fed are aggressively defending the S&P 1375-1390 level. If you look at the three bottoms that have been made over the last several months (August, November, and they are hoping, yesterday), Paulson and other officials have made big news around those time frames. August was the SIV bailout fund and the big mid month discount rate cut, November was the housing bailout plan (rate freeze) and major jawboning, and now we are seeing Paulson and Bernanke again in the news with bernanke saying he'll do whatever it takes, etc. and the countryslime bailout (probably pushed by regulators). Also, it appears that the PPT MAY be in action although I'm not sure what to think in that regard there is certainly some very odd trading going on. Then I talk to my buddy who works in the workout group of a major bank and he tells me he is being deluged with work - but they are not big mortgage lenders . . . alot of it is starting to come from commercial - primarily builder loans . . . but he is talking to many of the commercial bankers and they are warning him to get ready for another deluge . . . from what you might ask? They are starting to see increasing strains in the vanilla portion of the book. That's right, vanilla manufacturing and consumer businesses are missing plans and heading toward breaking covenants in significant numbers. I hear that and I think, can they prop this thing up forever?
2008-01-11 00:08:54
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Dman19762001 Posts: 95 Incept: 2008-01-09
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Regarding the VIX. My thesis is that traders have become complacent because it is becoming apparent that the Treasury and Fed are aggressively defending the S&P 1375-1390 level. If you look at the three bottoms that have been made over the last several months (August, November, and they are hoping, yesterday), Paulson and other officials have made big news around those time frames. August was the SIV bailout fund and the big mid month discount rate cut, November was the housing bailout plan (rate freeze) and major jawboning, and now we are seeing Paulson and Bernanke again in the news with bernanke saying he'll do whatever it takes, etc. and the countryslime bailout (probably pushed by regulators). Also, it appears that the PPT MAY be in action although I'm not sure what to think in that regard there is certainly some very odd trading going on. Then I talk to my buddy who works in the workout group of a major bank and he tells me he is being deluged with work - but they are not big mortgage lenders . . . alot of it is starting to come from commercial - primarily builder loans . . . but he is talking to many of the commercial bankers and they are warning him to get ready for another deluge . . . from what you might ask? They are starting to see increasing strains in the vanilla portion of the book. That's right, vanilla manufacturing and consumer businesses are missing plans and heading toward breaking covenants in significant numbers. I hear that and I think, can they prop this thing up forever?
2008-01-11 00:11:26
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Level9 Posts: 2556 Incept: 2007-10-28
City of the Dead
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I believe the VIX chart pattern confirms with most of the major world equity indexes at an ultimate culmination event around mid March - if you draw the triangle from the beginning of the credit event panic at the March/'07 swing lows, So a 1 year terminal pattern. hrmm.. creepy. Based on this, I'm going into the VIX for OPEX with this SPECULATIVE trade. The target seems surreal given the news, but the lotto tickets are cheap. This is definitely the minority viewpoint of the VIX options writers and given their performance recently, means the chances of it being accurate go up in my opinion :-). BTO: VIX/Jan/20 Puts - VIX should trade around $19 at OPEX 1/18 for around a 1000% return if filled @ .10 and then reverse into a selloff. If this pattern confirms, then depending on pricing: BTO: VIX/Feb/22.5 Calls - VIX should trade around $24 at 1/31 - the Fed meeting at which point we reverse again to a rally. Last modified:
2008-01-11 00:28:50 by level9
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Leraconteur Posts: 7189 Incept: 2007-12-03
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Can we get someone more competent than the current crop in WDC? Paulson, Bernanke and Bush all suck. Maybe my niece needs a summer job . . .
2008-01-11 12:34:35
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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How about you cut down on the LSD? Clinton's merry band of pilferers and thieves was no better. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-11 12:40:20
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Leraconteur Posts: 7189 Incept: 2007-12-03
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I didn't mention Clinton. The Republicrat Cartel isn't cutting it.
2008-01-11 12:48:14
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